Diplomacy or Taking the First Shot

If a country was threatening to nuke your country on a definite date, would you support trying to be diplomatic with them, or nuke them before they get the chance to?

To truly answer this question, we would have to look at all scenarios of each decision. Given, there are many what can be considered “middle-ground” decisions that have their own middle-ground outcomes. Even the extreme decisions can have middle-ground outcomes. However, it is best not to look at the middle-ground and focus on the extremes: diplomacy or taking the first shot.

Now each extreme has its own best case scenario and worst case scenario, and each case has its own future aftermath. To further my point, I will set you in the scenario, and give you the pros and cons of both decisions.

The Initial Scenario:

You are the leader of a small nation, which can be on Earth, or in some other world/ dimension with equal technologies to Earth. You are allies with a large superpower. For the past some-odd years, a neighboring country has been threatening to destroy you. Said country also has a very powerful ally. Recently, you got word from them that they were going to do so within the next six months. You must decide whether to try to be diplomatic with them, or try to destroy them before they destroy you.

Let’s say you chose Diplomacy…

The Best Case Scenario: The country will back down, a few papers or treaties will be signed and everyone will be “happy” (for a while at least).

The Worst Case Scenario: The country will not back down and will attack while your country is at more-or-less peace. Or, the country will ask for large sums of money to not attack you, which will eventually catch up to your country and put it severely into debt.

The What-ifs: Now, let’s say the country signed that treaty. Well, paper is so easily lost, and words are so easily misinterpreted, so they attack you twenty years later. Your country is now under attack, which means your ally will get involved, which means their ally will get involved, which may snowball into a third World War. Also, the broken treaty may have been the one saying you have to give them money, so now your country in war and in debt.

Let’s say you chose Destroying Them First…

The Best Case Scenario: The country will surrender before you even fire a shot or very early on, and very few lives will be lost, so everyone is “happy” once more.

The Worst Case Scenario: The country’s ally will get up in arms and attack your country which means your ally will get up in arms, and, oh, look, WWIII!

The What-ifs: Let’s just say that the country surrendered, but twenty years later they have this fancy new top-secret weapon and they use it against your country, so your ally gets in arms, blah, blah, blah, WWIII.